Supplementary Charts and Tables (PDF Format)

Introduction

The Pre-Budget Report, published by HM Treasury on 9 November 1999, includes a discussion of economic developments, prospects and risks (Annex A).

This supplementary document provides additional information to that contained in the annex, in the form of detailed charts and tables. The Pre-Budget Report economic forecast is consistent with the national accounts and balance of payments statistics to the second quarter of 1999 released by the Office for National Statistics on 22 September, and the preliminary GDP estimate for the third quarter released on 22 October.

Forecast ranges As in previous Budget and Pre-Budget Reports, the economic forecast is presented in terms of forecast ranges, based on alternative assumptions about the supply-side performance of the UK economy. Full details are provided in Annex A of the Pre-Budget Report.

The mid-point of the forecast ranges represents the Government’s neutral case view of economic prospects, based on an assumption of 2½ per cent a year for the trend rate of growth from 2000. This is a balanced assessment, assuming only a very modest increase in the employment rate, and not banking any improvement in underlying productivity performance compared to the 1990s. The neutral assumption for trend growth is set out in Pre-Budget Report Table A2, and discussed in the accompanying text.

The figures at the low end of the range are consistent with a deliberately cautious assumption of 2¼ per cent a year trend growth. This does not assume any increase in the employment rate. As before, projections for the public finances (set out in Annex B of the Pre-Budget Report) are based on the low end of the ranges. The upper end of the forecast ranges is symmetrical, illustrating the clear potential for stronger growth based in part on Government policies to raise productivity growth and to increase the labour supply.