H M TREASURY
The economy: recent developments and prospects - data definitions and sources
November 1994
The economy: recent developments and prospects - data definitions and sources.
This note gives data definitions and sources for the charts and tables in chapter 3 of the November 1994 Financial Statement and Budget Report.
We have endeavoured to provide CSO published sources for series where possible. The data are available from CSO publications such as Economic Trends or Financial Statistics, both published monthly, or directly from the CSO on request. The source given is the CSO identifier.
Any queries and comments should be addressed to the Treasury Press Office, telephone 071-270-5238.
HM, Treasury, Parliament Street, London, SW1P 3AG
Chart 3.1: G7 GDP and world trade
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1978-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
World trade: OECD measure of world trade in
manufactures (average of exports and imports).
Constant price index. Source: CSO (GAFR).
G7 GDP: GDP at constant market prices for the major seven countries (US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, UK and Canada). Weighted by 1987 GDP at 1987 exchange rates.
Sources: see appendix.
Note: both variables expressed as a percentage change on a year earlier.
Chart 3.2: Non-oil commodity prices
Frequency: weekly.
Data: 07/01/86 - 23/11/94.
'The Economist' index of non-oil commodity prices, expressed in terms of IMF Special Drawing Rights. Source: 'The Economist', also available on Datastream (ECALLIS).
Note: series index (1990 = 100).
Chart 3.3: G7 long-term interest rates and inflation
Frequency: monthly.
Data: Jan 77-Oct 94, inflation figures to Sept 94.
Interest rates: weighted average of 7-10 year government bond secondary market yields for US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, UK and Canada.
Inflation: growth in weighted average for the same countries of consumer price indices.
Sources (for both series): see appendix.
Note: both series expressed as a percentage.
Frequency: half yearly.
Data: 1987-1994H1, forecast 1994H2-1996H1.
Gross Domestic Product at factor cost, 1990 prices. Source: CSO (CAOP).
Note: variable expressed as a percentage change on a year earlier.
Chart 3.5: Domestic demand, net trade and GDP
Frequency: half yearly.
Data: 1987-1994H1, forecast 1994H2-1996H1.
Demand: domestic demand on goods and services at
factor cost (consumers' expenditure + gross domestic fixed capital formation + stockbuilding + general government final consumption - factor cost adjustment, Pounds m 1990 prices). Source: CSO (DIAY-DIAS).
Net trade: net trade in goods and services (Pounds m 1990 prices). Source: CSO (DJDG - DJDJ).
GDP: Gross Domestic Product at factor cost, Pounds m 1990 prices. Source: CSO (CAOP).
Note: demand and net trade expressed as a contribution to percentage change in GDP on previous half year, i.e. change in component as percentage of GDP in previous period.
Chart 3.6: Personal sector consumption, income and saving
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1963-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
Income: real personal disposable income (Pounds m, 1990 prices). Source: CSO (CECP).
Consumption: consumers' expenditure, (Pounds m 1990 prices). Source: CSO (CAAB).
Saving ratio: ratio of personal sector saving to personal disposable income (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AIIZ).
Note: revisions to published CSO data for saving, personal disposable income and sectoral financial balances for the period 1993Q1-1994Q2 have been made by the Treasury to reflect CSO revisions to component series published on 18 November 1994.
Chart 3.7: Housing turnover and prices
Frequency: monthly.
Data: Jan 90 - Oct 94.
Turnover: particulars delivered, seasonally adjusted, Inland Revenue figures. Source: CSO (FTAQ).
Prices: Halifax house price index. Source: Halifax Building Society.
Note: Particulars delivered, thousands; Halifax index, 1983 = 100.
Chart 3.8: Housing affordability
Frequency: annual.
Data: 1969-1994.
House price-earnings ratio: DOE house price index (1990=100), source: CSO (BAJH), divided by personal sector wages and salaries, source: CSO (AIJB), per head of the UK employed labour force, source: CSO (DYDC-DYCZ-DMGG).
Mortgage repayments: Department of Environment's 5% Sample Survey of Building Society Mortgages. Source: DoE Housing and Construction Statistics for income and advances, and average mortgage rate from CSO Financial Statistics.
Note: estimates for 1994 based on average of first three quarters.
Chart 3.9: The personal sector financial balance
Frequency: annual.
Data: 1963-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
Saving: personal sector saving before providing for stock appreciation (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AAUU).
Investment: personal sector gross domestic fixed capital formation plus stockbuilding and capital transfers, (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AAUU - AAVH).
Disposable income: personal sector disposable income (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AIIW).
Financial balance: personal sector financial surplus/deficit (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AAVH).
Note: All variables expressed as a percentage of personal disposable income. Please see footnote to chart 3.6.
Chart 3.10: Companies' real rates of return
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1974-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
All ICCs: ratio of ICCs' gross trading profits less stock appreciation plus rent received less capital consumption to net average capital employed. Source: CSO (DTCD).
Non-North Sea: ratio of ICC's gross trading profits, as above, excluding private sector and public corporations' gross profit from North Sea activities. Source: CSO (DTCF).
Note: both variables expressed as percentages.
Chart 3.11: Business investment-GDP ratio
Frequency: half-yearly.
Data: 1972-1994H1, forecast 1994H2-1996H1.
Business investment: all non-residential fixed investment by the private sector and public
corporations (excluding National Health Trust
hospitals). Source: CSO (DEMS).
GDP: Gross Domestic Product at factor cost, Pounds m 1990 prices. Source: CSO (CAOP).
Note: series expressed as a percentage of GDP, at
constant 1990 prices.
Chart 3.12: General government fixed investment
Frequency: half-yearly.
Data: 1974-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
General government plus NHS Trusts' gross domestic fixed capital formation, excluding net purchases of land and existing buildings, (Pounds bn 1990 prices). Source: CSO (DECW+DFTI- DFDA-(DEBS+DFCW)), from 1989.
Note: Treasury estimates prior to 1989 based on CSO data to account for rebasing (available on request).
Chart 3.13: Stockbuilding and GDP growth
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1972-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product at factor cost, Pounds m 1990 prices (percentage changes on a year earlier). Source: CSO (CAOP).
Stockbuilding: value of physical increase in stocks and work in progress, (Pounds m 1990 prices). Source: CSO (DGBA).
Chart 3.14: Industrial and commercial companies' financial balance
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1970-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
Saving: ICCs' undistributed income (saving) less stock appreciation (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AAUQ - AIAP).
Capital spending: gross domestic fixed capital formation, less net capital transfers plus the change in book value of stocks, Pounds m. Source: CSO (FMBF - CIDZ).
Financial balance: ICCs' financial surplus/deficit (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AAVG).
GDP: money GDP (Pounds m). Source: CSO(CAOB).
Note: all variables expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product at current market prices.
Frequency: quarterly.
Data: 1992Q1-1994Q2.
Employment: employees plus self-employed (Great Britain only).
Labour Force Survey (LFS): employees - source: CSO (BAVS); self-employed - source: CSO (BAVT).
Employer-based method: employees - source: CSO (BCAJ); self-employed - source: CSO (BAVT).
Frequency: half-yearly.
Data: 1978-1994H1, forecast 1994H2-1996H1.
Manufacturing: output per person employed in manufacturing industries. Source: output CSO (DVZK), employment CSO's adjusted SIC (1992) monthly series (note, they are not the raw ED numbers which are SIC (1980)).
Non-North Sea: output per person employed in the whole economy excluding the North Sea 1. Source CSO output CKJL; employment, (DYDC- DYCZ- DMGG).
Note: both variables expressed as a percentage change on a year earlier.
1 North Sea output is more strictly described as output of the mineral and gas exploration industries.
Frequency: quarterly.
Data: 1992Q1-1994Q3.
LFS: Labour Force Survey (Rapid Release,
Table 1), ILO unemployed. Source: CSO (BAVX).
Claimant count: GB unemployment. Source: CSO (DPAJ).
Frequency: quarterly.
Data: price 1975-93Q4, estimate/forecast 94Q1-96Q2;
cost 1975-94Q1, estimate/forecast 94Q2-96Q2.
Price competitiveness: IMF index of UK export prices of manufactures (UVIs) divided by 1985 weighted averages of UVI of competitors' export prices of manufactures, both expressed in US dollars. Source: CSO (FLAA).
Cost competitiveness: IMF index of UK relative unit labour costs in manufacturing relative to weighted average of major 15 industrial countries. Source: CSO (FLAC).
Note: both series indices, (1990 = 100).
Chart 3.19: Unit labour costs in manufacturing
Frequency: annual.
Data: 1981-1993, forecast 1994.
Overseas costs: unit labour costs of major 15 industrial countries weighted together using IMF competitiveness weights.
UK costs: Treasury estimate of UK unit labour costs.
For sources see appendix.
Note: both variables expressed as a percentage change on a year earlier.
Chart 3.20: Export profit margins
Frequency: quarterly.
Data: 1976-1994Q2, forecast 1994Q3-1996Q2.
Export profit margins: ratio of the price of exports of manufactures to manufacturers' total unit costs.
Export prices: export of manufactures AVI. Source CSO (BOVS).
Unit costs: Treasury estimate of manufacturers' total unit costs, weighting together labour costs and other input costs, as documented in Treasury model documentation, available on request.
Note: series rebased, (1990 = 100).
Chart 3.21: Exports and overseas demand
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1976-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
Exports: volume of exported manufactures (Pounds m 1990 prices). Source: CSO (BOXS).
Export markets: OECD estimate of UK export markets for manufactures as measured by other countries' imports weighted according to their importance in UK exports. Source: OECD (WOGBR XMUMKT S).
Note: both variables expressed as a percentage change on a year earlier.
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1976-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
Imports: volume of imports of goods less oil (Pounds m 1990 prices). Source: CSO (BPIU).
Demand: Total Final Expenditure (Pounds m 1990 prices). Source: CSO (DIAU).
Note: both variables expressed as a percentage change on a year earlier.
Chart 3.23: The current account
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1979-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
Current account of the balance of payments (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AIMF).
Visibles: visible trade balance (Pounds m).
Source: CSO (AIMA).
Invisibles: invisibles balance, (services, transfers and investment income)(Pounds m). Source: CSO (AIMB).
GDP: average measure at current market prices (Pounds m). Source: CSO (CAOB).
Note : variables expressed as a percentage of GDP.
Chart 3.24: Financial balances and the current account
Frequency: annual and 1996H1.
Data: 1970-1993, forecast 1994-1996H1.
Private sector: combined financial surplus/deficit of the personal sector, industrial and commercial, and financial companies (Pounds m).
Source: CSO (AAVH + AAVG + AAVF).
(See footnote to chart 3.6.)
Current account: current balance (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AIMF).
Public sector: public sector financial deficit (Pounds m). Source: CSO (AAVE).
GDP: average measure at current market prices (Pounds m).
Source: CSO (CAOB).
Note: all variables expressed as a percentage of GDP.
Chart 3.25: Sterling exchange rate index
Frequency: monthly.
Data: Jan 80-Oct 94, estimate Nov 94.
Sterling effective exchange rate index.
Source: CSO (AJHV).
Note: series index (1985=100). November based on outturns up to 24 November.
Frequency: monthly.
Data: Jan 80-Oct 94, estimate Nov 94.
3-month interbank rate; source: CSO (AMIJ).
10-year gilts: BGS par yields. Source: CSO(AJLW).
Note: November based on outturns up to 24 November.
Frequency: monthly.
Data: Jan 84-Oct 94.
M0: notes and coin and bankers' balances (seasonally adjusted). Source: CSO (EUAC) and Bank of
England press release.
M4: notes and coin plus bank and building society sterling deposits by the non-bank, non-building society private sector (not seasonally adjusted). Source: CSO (EUAP) and Bank
of England press release.
Note: both variables expressed as percentage changes on a year earlier.
Chart 3.28: Recent inflation indicators
Frequency: monthly.
Data: Sep 92 - Oct 94, earnings to Sep 94.
Earnings: underlying average earnings for the whole economy. Source: CSO (DNEM).
RPI excluding MIPS: all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments, (Jan 1987 = 100).
Source: CSO (CHMK).
Producer output prices: output prices of manufacturing excluding food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum industries; not seasonally adjusted. Source: CSO (PLLV).
Note: all variables expressed as a percentage
change on a year earlier.
Chart 3.29: Recent price inflation excluding MIPs
Frequency: quarterly.
Data: 1990Q1-1994Q3, forecast 1994Q4-1996Q2.
Retail prices index excluding mortgage interest
payments. Source: CSO (CHMK).
Note: series expressed as percentage change on a
year earlier.
Chart 3A.1: Output and inflation
Frequency: financial years.
Data: 1956/7-1993/4, projection 1994/5-1999/2000.
GDP deflator at market prices, 1990=100.
Source: CSO (DJDT).
Real GDP at factor cost, Pounds m 1990 prices.
Source: CSO (CAOP).
Note: variables expressed as a percentage change on
a year earlier.
Table 3.1 World economy
Percentage changes on a year earlier
Major seven countries 1
Real GDP Sources: national sources, also
available on Datastream.
Domestic Demand GDP weighted as for long-term interest rates in
Industrial Production chart 3.3, except prices weighted by
consumption, see appendix.
Consumer price inflation 2
World trade in Source: CSO(GAFR)
manufactures
UK export markets 3 Source: OECD (WOGBR XMUMKT S)
1 G7: US, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada.
2 Final quarter of each period. For UK, RPI
excluding mortgage interest payments.
3 Other countries' imports of manufactures weighted
according to their importance in UK exports.
Table 3.2 Gross domestic fixed capital formation
at constant prices
Percentage changes on a year earlier
Business 1 Source: CSO (DEMS)
Private dwellings Source: CSO
and land 2 (DFEA+DEFJ+DFCP+DEBS+DFCW)
General Source: CSO (DECW+DFTI-
government 3 DFDA-(DEBS+DFCW)), figures
prior to 1989 are Treasury estimates
based on CSO data to account for rebasing.
Whole economy Source: CSO (DECU)
1 Includes public corporations, except National Health Trust
hospitals.
2 Includes net purchases of land and existing buildings
for the whole economy.
3 Excludes net purchases of land and existing buildings;
includes National Health Trust hospitals.
Table 3.3 Non- oil visible trade
Percentage changes on a year earlier Pounds Billion
Volumes Prices 1 Non-oil
visiable
Exports Imports Exports Imports Terms of balance
trade 2>
CSO
Identifiers: BOXU BPIU CGQF/ CGQH/ Export CGQJ
BOXU BPIU Import
Prices
1 Average value indices.
2 Ratio of export to import prices.
Table 3.4 The current account
Pounds billion
Manufactures Oil Other Total Invisibles Current
visibles balance
CSO
Identifiers: BPJF CGQI AIMA- AIMA AIMB AIMF
BPJF-
CGQI
Table 3.5 Retail and producer output price inflation
Percentage changes on a year earlier
RPI excluding all items RPI excluding
MIPs mortgage interest payments,
(Jan 1987=100). Source: CSO (CHMK)
Producer output output prices of manufacturing
prices 1 excluding food, beverages,
tobacco and petroleum
industries; not seasonally adjusted.
Source: CSO(PLLV)
1 Excluding the food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum industries.
Tables 3.6 and 3.7 Recent Treasury forecasts and
Treasury and Independent Panel 1 Forecasts
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless
otherwise stated
Gross Domestic Source: CSO (CAOP)
Product
RPI excluding Source: CSO (CHMK)
mortgage
Current account Source: CSO (AIMF)
(Pounds billion)
PSBR (1994-95, Source: CSO (ABEN)
Pounds billion)
1 Submitted to the Chancellor of the Exchequer on 2
November.
Table 3.8 Summary of economic prospects
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise
stated.
GDP and domestic demand at constant prices CSO Identifiers
Domestic demand
Consumers' expenditure CAAB
General government consumption DIAT
Fixed investment DECU
Change in stockbuilding 3 DGBA
Exports of goods and services DJDG
Imports of goods and services DJDJ
Gross Domestic Product CAOP
Non-oil GDP CKJL
Manufacturing output DVZK
Balance of payments current account
Pounds Billion AIMF
per cent of GDP AIMF/CAOB
Inflation
RPI excluding mortgage interest payments CHMK
(fourth quarter)
Producer output prices (fourth quarter) 4 PLLU
GDP deflator at market prices (financial year) DJDT
Money GDP at market prices (financial year)
Pounds billion CAOB
percentage change
PSBR (financial year)
Pounds Billion ABEN
per cent of GDP ABEN/CAOB
3 Per cent of GDP
4 Excluding food, beverages, tobacco and pertroleum industries
Table 3.9 Gross domestic product and its components
Pounds billion at 1990 prices, seasonally adjusted
Consumers' General Total Stock- Domestic Exports Total Less Less Plus GDP
expenditure government fixed building Demands of goods final imports adjustments statistical at
Consumption investment and expenditure of goods to factor discrepancy 1 factor
services and cost cost
services
CSO ID: CAAB DIAT DECU DGBA DIAY DJDG DIAU DJDJ DIAS GIXS CAOP
1 Expenditure adjustment
2 For stockbuilding and the statistical discrepancy, changes are
expressed as a per cent of GDP.
Table 3A.1 Output growth and inflation 1
CSO indentifiers:
Output
Non-North CKJL
Sea GDP
Total GDP CAOP
Prices
GDP Defaltor DJDT
Money GDP CAOB
Memo:
RPI ex MIPS 2 CHMK
1 Percentage changes on previous financial year; forecasts 1994-95
and 1995-96 and assumptions thereafter.
2 Percentage change in year to 1994 Q4 and 1995 Q4; percentage change
on previous financial year thereafter.
Table 3A.3 Economic assumptions for public expenditure
CSO Identifiers:
GDP deflator DJDT
Retail prices index 1 CHAW
(September)
Rossi index (CHAW - (DOBQ+DOBP+DOBR))
(September)
Average earnings DNEM
GB unemployment DPAJ
(millions)
Northern Ireland DPBG
unemployment (thousands)
1 Used for projecting social security expenditure in the following
financial year
Appendix
Sources: national sources, also available on Datastream. Note
that throughout the annex DS refers to Datastream.
Sources and weights for Chart 3.1
G7 GDP
Growth in sum of G7 GDP in 1987 prices, $1987
Multiply by factor given to convert individual country data into
1987 prices in US$ at a quarterly rate.
Canada, DS mnemonic CNGDP...D, (GDP at 1986 prices). Factor
0.0009781.
US, DS mnemonic USGDP...D, (GDP constant dollars 1987 annual
rate). Factor 0.25.
Japan, DS mnemonic JPGDP...D, (GDP at constant prices annual
rate). Factor 0.00176.
Germany, DS mnemonic BDGDP...D. Factor 0.4993099.
France, DS mnemonic FRGDPRODD. Factor 0.279761.
Italy, DS mnemonic ITGDP...D. Factor 0.0008818.
UK, Sum of DS mnemonics UKGDPEXPD and UKADJFCTD. Factor
0.0013524.
Sources and weights for Chart 3.3
Long interest rates
Weighted by shares of G7 GDP in 1987 at 1987 exchange rates.
United States, Source: BIS, Treasury notes/bonds, 10 years,
monthly averages. Weight: 0.4178
Canada, Source: BIS, Government bonds, 10 years, month ends.
Weight: 0.0385
Japan, Source: BIS, Government bonds, 10 years, month ends.
Weight: 0.2222
UK, Source: CSO, Gilts, 10 years par yield, month averages.
Weight: 0.0638
Germany, DS mnemonic BDBRYLD, Benchmark government bonds, 10
years. Weight: 0.1045
France, DS mnemonic FRLNGYLD, Government bonds, 7 years, month
averages. Weight: 0.0826
Italy, DS mnemonic ITTRSBND, Government bonds, end months.
Weight: 0.0708
Consumer Price inflation
Year on year growth in monthly G7 price index, weighted by shares
of G7 consumption in 1987 at 1987 exchange rates.
United States, DS mnemonic USCP....F. Weight: 0.048357
Canada, DS mnemonic CNCP7500F. Weight: 0.03756
Japan, DS mnemonic JPCNPRICF. Weight: 0.15962
UK, DS mnemonic UKRP....F. Weight: 0.07394
Germany, DS mnemonic BDCP....F. Weight: 0.0892
France, DS mnemonic FRCP....F. Weight: 0.07746
Italy, DS mnemonic ITCP7500F. Weight: 0.07864
Sources and weights for chart 3.19
Unit Labour Costs
Main competitors' unit labour costs in local currencies, weighted
by IMF competitiveness weights.
Canada, DS mnemonic CNOCULABE. Weight: 0.0235
US, DS mnemonic USOCULABE. Weight 0.253
Japan, DS mnemonic JPOCULABE. Weight 0.1092
Germany, DS mnemonic BDOCULABE. Weight 0.2475
France, DS mnemonic FROCULABE. Weight 0.1453
Italy, DS mnemonic ITOCULABE. Weight 0.0947
Netherlands, DS mnemonic NLOCULABE. Weight 0.0619
Belgium, DS mnemonic BGOCULABE. Weight 0.0649
UK, Estimated UK unit labour costs defined as:
ERMF*EMF*(1+(EMPNIC+NIS+OCR)/WFP))/YMF
where :
ERMF = Earnings in manufacturing; Source: CSO (DNAG)
EMF = Employment in manufacturing; Source: CSO (DMGE+DMGF)
EMPNIC = Employers' national insurance contributions; Source: CSO
(CTCM)
NIS = National insurance surcharge accruals; Source: CSO (CSAF)
OCR= Employers' other contributions; Source: CSO (CAUB)
WFP= Total wage and salaries bill; Source: CSO (AIJB)
YMF= Manufacturing output; Source: CSO (DVZK)